Market Overview
Benchmark rates, indicative spreads by program, and an honest monthly read on what Houston lenders are actually quoting — not what they say they are quoting.
Benchmark Rates
Updated each business morning. These are the reference rates commercial loans price over — the spread on top is where the negotiation happens.
| Benchmark | Current | 1 week ago | 1 month ago | 1 year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSJ Prime Rate | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.75% | 7.25% |
| SOFR — overnight | 3.89% | 3.87% | 3.64% | 4.29% |
| SOFR — 30 day average | 3.87% | 3.82% | 3.65% | 4.18% |
| Treasury — 5 year | 4.91% | 4.99% | 4.83% | 3.63% |
| Treasury — 7 year | 5.00% | 5.11% | 4.91% | 3.82% |
| Treasury — 10 year | 5.10% | 5.22% | 5.00% | 4.05% |
| Federal Funds target (upper) | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.25% |
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Latest published reading, October 17, 2026.
Indicative Pricing
Spreads ITCP is seeing quoted this month on stabilized assets with experienced sponsorship. Indicative only, and they move.
| Program | Index | Spread | All-in | Max LTV | Min DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agency multifamilyFannie Mae / Freddie Mac | UST 10Y | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% | 0.00x |
| Life companyStabilized, institutional | UST 10Y | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% | 0.00x |
| Bank / portfolioRecourse, 5–10 yr | UST 5Y | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% | 0.00x |
| CMBS / conduitNon-recourse fixed | UST 10Y | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% | 0.00x |
| BridgeTransitional, floating | SOFR | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% | n/a |
| ConstructionGround-up | SOFR | +000 bps | 0.00% | 00% LTC | n/a |
The Houston CRE Debt Snapshot
Two pages, first business day of the month. Where quotes are actually landing by asset class, which lenders have stepped up and which have quietly stepped back, and one chart that matters.
It is written from live deal flow rather than published indices, which means it tells you what a lender will do this month rather than what they did last quarter.
- Indicative spreads by asset class and lender type
- Which capital sources are active, cautious or closed
- Houston submarket notes and what is trading
- One thing worth doing this month if you own commercial property
The monthly snapshot
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Refinancing Considerations
An extraordinary volume of commercial debt matures over the next two years, much of it underwritten when rates looked nothing like they do now.
Proceeds may not cover the balance
If the loan was written at a lower rate, today’s debt service constrains what the same NOI will support. The gap between payoff and new proceeds is the number to establish early, because closing it takes time — fresh equity, a preferred piece, or a different structure.
Coverage tests bite differently
A property that comfortably cleared 1.25x at the old rate may not clear it now. Where the constraint has moved from LTV to DSCR, the answer is usually amortization, term or structure rather than shopping harder for a rate.
Your lender may not want it back
Banks with concentration limits are declining renewals they would have written without a thought three years ago. Assume nothing about the incumbent, and find out where you stand long before the maturity date.
A twelve-month runway changes the outcome.
Almost every genuinely bad refinancing outcome we see traces back to the same cause: the owner started ninety days out. At that point the options have narrowed and the pricing reflects it.
- 12–18
Months out — test the gap
Establish what today’s market supports against your current balance. If there is a shortfall, this is when it is solvable.
- 9–12
Months out — choose the path
Refinance, extend, recapitalize or sell — decided with real quotes in hand rather than assumptions.
- 6
Months out — go to market
Complete package, competing lenders, and enough time to walk away from a bad term sheet.
- <3
Months out — still solvable
But options are narrower and it costs more. Bridge debt exists for exactly this, and it is not cheap.
Approaching Loan Maturities
ITCP will assess an existing facility against current market terms and identify the available options.